Report: Closed Primaries Could Cost Texas $28 Billion by 2050

AUSTIN, Texas — Closing Texas’ primaries could cost the state $28.2 billion and more than 219,000 jobs by 2050, according to a new independent economic analysis by The Perryman Group. The report comes in the midst of the Texas Republican Party’s lawsuit, filed last month, aimed at closing the state’s primaries — a lawsuit that Secretary of State Jane Nelson called “brazen and misguided” in recent court filings. 

The Perryman Group’s findings are based on empirical evidence that voter participation correlates with stronger earnings, consumer spending, and workforce participation. As the authors note in the conclusion, "laws which restrict access such as closing primaries can lead to substantial economic and fiscal losses over time.”

“This report suggests that closing primaries wouldn't just cost nearly 3 million Texans their right to vote — it would also cost the state billions of dollars in total economic output,” said Nick Troiano, Executive Director of Unite America. “And all for what, exactly?"

According to The Perryman Group, if Texas primaries close in 2026, annual fiscal losses by 2050 would include $1.5 billion in state tax revenue and $1.2 billion in local revenue — funds that otherwise support schools, roads, public safety and more.

“Closing Texas’s primaries would be an economic and civic setback for every community — especially for Texans with disabilities,” said Chase Bearden, Executive Director with the Coalition for Texans with Disabilities. “When fewer people can participate, we all lose — in opportunity, innovation, and inclusion. Open primaries strengthen both our communities and our economy by ensuring that every Texan has a voice in choosing the leaders who make decisions that affect our lives and livelihoods. Limiting that access would not only silence millions of voters, it would cost our state billions in lost growth and potential.”

The analysis also estimates that if Texas had implemented closed primaries in 2001, the state today would have 104,000 fewer jobs and $13.2 billion less in annual economic output, underscoring the long-term benefits of maintaining open elections.

“As veterans, we fought to defend every American’s right to have a say in our democracy — not just those who belong to a political party,” said Eric Bronner, Founder of Veterans for All Voters. “Closing Texas’s primaries would silence millions of independent voters, weaken civic participation, and hurt our economy. Open primaries honor the American principles we served to protect and strengthen both our communities and our economy.”

Nearly half of Americans (43%) nationwide now identify as independent, and excluding them would sideline millions of taxpayers who fund these elections. In Texas, there’s an estimated 2.8 million independent voters who would not be able to participate in primaries if the lawsuit succeeds in closing them. That’s significant because 36 of Texas’ 38 congressional races are considered uncompetitive in the general election — meaning the primary is the only election of consequence.

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Unite America is a philanthropic venture fund that invests in nonpartisan election reform to foster a more representative and functional government.

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The Perryman Group is an economic research and analysis firm based in Waco, Texas. Dr. Ray Perryman, the founder and CEO of The Perryman Group, has guided clients, subscribers, and audiences through the complexities of economic life for more than 40 years. He holds a BS in Mathematics from Baylor and a PhD in Economics from Rice.  He has held numerous academic positions; authored several books, more than 400 academic papers and 3,000 trade articles; and received hundreds of prestigious awards for his academic and professional efforts.

Dr. M. Ray Perryman of The Perryman Group has been cited in prestigious journals such as Journal of Regional Science, Energy Economics, and Economics of Education Review for his influential econometric models and regional impact analyses, notably in studies on NAFTA, energy policy, and higher education economics. His work has earned him significant recognition, including a nomination for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 2010 and a presidential appointment to the U.S. Metrication Study Board. These accolades underscore his stature as a leading applied economist, with his research frequently referenced by entities like the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.