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Primary Problem
North Carolina

Tillis' Retirement Shows the Primary Problem in Plain Sight

Ross Sherman
Press Director
July 1, 2025

Senator Thom Tillis’ surprise retirement this week isn’t just a shake-up in North Carolina politics — it’s a vivid example of how America’s broken primary system punishes bipartisanship, even though voters desperately want it.

Sen. Tillis, one of the few members of Congress who consistently worked across the aisle, helped broker high-profile deals on infrastructure, immigration, and gun safety. Instead of being rewarded, he was censured by his own state party and repeatedly targeted by President Trump and the MAGA base.

Things came to a head this weekend when Tillis opposed the GOP’s domestic policy agenda — or the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” Trump immediately threatened a primary challenge, and the very next day, Tillis announced his retirement.

Facing a tough general election and an even tougher primary, Tillis was in an impossible bind. If he tacked too far right, he’d alienate general election voters. But if he didn’t toe the party line, he risked being “primaried” — which is exactly what happened.

This is the Primary Problem in action: Even though huge majorities of voters say they want more bipartisanship and for their elected officials to work across the aisle to get things done, our election system doesn’t allow it. In other words, voters say they want more Sen. Tillises — but the system is set up to drive them out. 

If we want more elected officials to work together, we need to fix our elections. 

What does this mean for North Carolina in 2026?

Tillis’ retirement sets up what could be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. But the kind of candidates voters get to choose from in November will be shaped by what happens in the spring primaries.

In a purple state like North Carolina, the stakes are high. The next Republican nominee — chosen by a small share of GOP primary voters — will likely be further to the right than Tillis and out of step with the broader electorate that narrowly elected him in 2020. That could give Democrats a golden opportunity to flip a seat they haven’t held since 2008. The Cook Political Report has already moved the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”

With Tillis out, speculation has already begun. Names floated on the Republican side include Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the  president and a major figure in GOP fundraising. More mainstream Republicans or business-aligned candidates may also jump in, but Tillis’ experience shows how hard it is to survive a primary if you’re seen as a moderate. The question isn’t just who’s running — it’s who can survive a primary.

On the Democratic side, all eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is widely considered to be a strong general election candidate.

What’s the solution?

In a better system, Tillis could run on his bipartisan record and appeal to the full North Carolina electorate. But in a party primary system, his political fate was sealed not by most voters — but by a narrow slice of the Republican base.

In an open, all-candidate primary, Tillis would appear on the same ballot as every other candidate — and the top vote-getters would advance to the general. That structure encourages broader coalitions, not base-only campaigns, and it limits the ability of party bosses to punish bipartisan lawmakers by backing a primary challenger.

North Carolina doesn’t need to wait for Washington to fix this. Alaska is one of five states that have already implemented all-candidate primaries for either state or federal office. And it’s no coincidence that Sen. Lisa Murkowski is one of the few Republicans who can remain independent-minded, occasionally buck her party, and still win re-election as she did in 2022. 

Sen. Tillis concluded his statement announcing his retirement with a telling quote: “I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit...” With more open elections, we’re more likely to get leaders who tell the truth — not just what their party wants to hear.