In the next couple of weeks, New Jersey and Virginia will hold primary elections — headlined by hotly-contested governor’s races and dozens of state legislative contests.
Every election should be a reason to celebrate our democracy. But in reality, just like last month’s primaries in Pennsylvania, these contests will once again reveal a crisis of competition and a lack of representation in American politics.
Primaries have always been low-turnout affairs — but that fact obscures a deeper problem. Even if everyone turned out, the lack of real competition means most voters still wouldn’t have the opportunity to cast a vote that actually matters in determining the outcome.
Here’s a closer look at the dynamics in New Jersey and Virginia — and how we can solve the Primary Problem.
Like Pennsylvania, New Jersey is one of 16 states that still use closed party primaries, meaning independent voters — nearly 37% of the electorate — are barred from participating in the elections that often decide who ends up in office.
Also like Pennsylvania, the stakes are high but the competition is low. In New Jersey’s most recent state legislative elections in 2023, only 8.2% of registered voters cast a meaningful vote to elect the entire state house. A meaningful vote is one that actually matters in determining the outcome of an election.
Even before a single vote is counted in New Jersey this year, the lack of competition is on full display. Of the 80 party primaries for the General Assembly this year (one for each party in each of 40 districts), 49 are uncontested. That means those contests are being decided by default — not democracy.
In the Democratic primary for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill appears to be the frontrunner in a race featuring nine candidates. According to a recent poll, she led the field with less than 30% support. If that turns out to be her Election Day support, more than two-thirds of Democratic primary voters will have chosen a different candidate than the one that will appear on the general election ballot.
Even in one of the nation’s most diverse and densely populated states, voters are being systematically shut out of meaningful participation — especially the independents who pay for these elections with their tax dollars but aren’t even allowed to cast a ballot in the first place.
Virginia offers a more inclusive model: any registered voter can participate in a party primary of their choice, regardless of party affiliation. But while access is better, there’s still little actual competition. And therefore very few meaningful votes.
In the 2023 legislative primaries:
This year:
Virginia does allow all voters to participate in primaries, which gives everyone an opportunity to cast a meaningful vote — unlike in closed primary states. But because there’s vanishingly little competition, voters are still denied real choices.
Every voter should have the freedom to vote in every taxpayer-funded election — and more votes should be meaningful in determining who represents us. But across the country, many elections are decided in low-turnout primaries that are either closed to independents, uncontested, or both.
This is the Primary Problem — and it’s one of the most solvable problems in American politics today.
