How Gerrymandering in Texas and California Will Affect the 2026 Midterms

At Donald Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans are gearing up for a special legislative session with one goal: redraw the state’s congressional maps to create five more safe Republican seats. In response, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has floated dismantling the state’s independent redistricting commission. This would clear the way for Democratic legislators to rig the maps in their favor, too.

This partisan tit-for-tat isn’t about serving voters. It’s about protecting power ahead of the 2026 midterms, no matter the cost to democracy. The midterms are already shaping up to be the least competitive in modern history. According to the Cook Political Report, 91% of U.S. House races are rated as safe for one party or the other. And in 30 states, not a single district is considered competitive. That means in 30 states, the only meaningful votes that will be cast will be in party primaries — not the general election.

If Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California succeed in redrawing their district maps, even more races will be locked up before a single vote is cast, deepening polarization and stripping voters of meaningful choices.

As competition disappears from general elections, party primaries become the only contests that matter. Not only do primaries draw far fewer voters – those who do show up tend to be more ideologically extreme. This is the Primary Problem, and research from the Unite America Institute shows it’s getting worse every cycle:

• In 2020, 83% of House seats were determined in primaries by just 10% of voters.
  
  
• In 2022, 83% of House seats were determined in primaries by just 8% of voters.
  
  
• In 2024, 87% of House seats were determined in primaries by just 7% of voters.

Ending partisan gerrymandering is one part of the solution. But with Americans increasingly “self-sorting” — Democrats into cities, Republicans into rural areas — even fair, independent redistricting can only go so far in restoring competition.

To truly give voters a voice, we need to fix the elections that matter most: the primaries. Open, all-candidate primaries increase competition, make general elections more meaningful, and ensure every voter can participate. Five states already use this system for state and federal races, as do the vast majority of America’s largest cities.

This race to the bottom can’t continue. If we want a Congress that represents the country, not just the extremes, we need to reform the way we choose our leaders. That starts with fixing the primaries.

The X Conversation